SAC
BOS
Sacramento Kings @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
85% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 85% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.7 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 8,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Kings -16.6.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 28th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,460 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Kings 21st (13.7), Celtics 27th (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -13.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.8 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · BOS n/a | SAC 15% · BOS 85% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +587 · BOS -587 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 122, Kings 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 3 and Celtics by 30.
Side by side
| SAC | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-1 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | SAC 93 @ BOS 112 | BOS |
| 2026-01-01 | 2025-26 | BOS 120 @ SAC 106 | BOS |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | BOS 113 @ SAC 95 | BOS |
| 2025-01-10 | 2024-25 | SAC 114 @ BOS 97 | SAC |
| 2024-04-05 | 2023-24 | SAC 100 @ BOS 101 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works