SAC
CHA
Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.3 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Simulation: the Hornets win 7,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 28th.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,440 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -9 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.7 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · CHA n/a | SAC 24% · CHA 76% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +311 · CHA -311 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 118, Kings 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 8 and Hornets by 26.
Side by side
| SAC | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-2 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | 2025-26 | SAC 90 @ CHA 134 | CHA |
| 2026-03-11 | 2025-26 | CHA 117 @ SAC 109 | CHA |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | SAC 125 @ CHA 102 | SAC |
| 2025-02-24 | 2024-25 | CHA 88 @ SAC 130 | SAC |
| 2024-01-10 | 2023-24 | SAC 123 @ CHA 98 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works