SAC
DAL
Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.2 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 7,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.6 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,220 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 7 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -9.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.9 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · DAL n/a | SAC 22% · DAL 78% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +350 · DAL -350 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 122, Kings 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 7 and Mavericks by 26.
Side by side
| SAC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-2 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | SAC 130 @ DAL 121 | SAC |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | DAL 100 @ SAC 98 | DAL |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | DAL 107 @ SAC 113 | SAC |
| 2025-04-16 | 2024-25 | DAL 120 @ SAC 106 | DAL |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | SAC 122 @ DAL 98 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works