SAC

Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

78% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

SAC 22%DEN 78%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.6 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Kings 29th (-10.1).
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 28th.
Simulation: the Nuggets win 7,840 of 10,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Upset odds: the Kings win 2,160 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 7 or more.
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 28th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.3%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -10.3
Total points	n/a	233.1
Win chance	SAC n/a · DEN n/a	SAC 22% · DEN 78%
Fair moneyline		SAC +363 · DEN -363

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 122, Kings 112.
80% of simulations land between Kings by 7 and Nuggets by 27.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

SAC		DEN
0-5	Record	2-2
-10.1 29	Net rating	+4.1 7
108.3 28	Offensive rating	118.2 1
118.5 28	Defensive rating	114.1 21
52.4% 29	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
57.3% 29	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
14.1 14	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
25.8% 14	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
33.8% 30	3-point %	38.8% 1
102.4 16	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2025-12-11	2025-26	DEN 136 @ SAC 105	DEN
2025-11-22	2025-26	SAC 128 @ DEN 123	SAC
2025-11-11	2025-26	DEN 122 @ SAC 108	DEN
2025-11-03	2025-26	SAC 124 @ DEN 130	DEN
2025-04-09	2024-25	DEN 124 @ SAC 116	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

SAC

Domantas Sabonis F

16.1 pts, 12.4 reb, 4.8 ast in 31.2 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

SAC

Zach LaVine G

20 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast in 32 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

SAC

Darius Acuff Jr. G

24 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast in 36.4 min, 38% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Kings 136-105 on the road (2025-12-11). The difference: they shot 66% effective field goal percentage to 51% and they won the boards 46 to 38. Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 36 points.