SAC
DET
Sacramento Kings @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
87% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 8,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Kings -16.6.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.3 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,330 of 10,000 simulations (13%). A 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -14.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.6 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · DET n/a | SAC 13% · DET 87% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +650 · DET -650 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 121, Kings 106.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 3 and Pistons by 31.
Side by side
| SAC | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 4-1 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | SAC 116 @ DET 139 | DET |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | DET 136 @ SAC 127 | DET |
| 2025-04-07 | 2024-25 | SAC 127 @ DET 117 | SAC |
| 2024-12-26 | 2024-25 | DET 114 @ SAC 113 | DET |
| 2024-02-07 | 2023-24 | DET 133 @ SAC 120 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works