SAC
GSW
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.9 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 7,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.5 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,400 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 24th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -9.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.3 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · GSW n/a | SAC 24% · GSW 76% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +317 · GSW -317 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 122, Kings 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 7 and Warriors by 26.
Side by side
| SAC | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 2-3 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | GSW 118 @ SAC 124 | SAC |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | SAC 105 @ GSW 110 | GSW |
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | SAC 103 @ GSW 137 | GSW |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | GSW 116 @ SAC 121 | SAC |
| 2025-03-13 | 2024-25 | SAC 104 @ GSW 130 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works