SAC
HOU
Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
90% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 9.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Simulation: the Rockets win 8,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 5.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Kings -16.6.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,030 of 10,000 simulations (10%). A 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 1 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -16.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.9 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · HOU n/a | SAC 10% · HOU 90% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +874 · HOU -874 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 123, Kings 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 1 and Rockets by 33.
Side by side
| SAC | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 5-0 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | SAC 97 @ HOU 128 | HOU |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | HOU 98 @ SAC 111 | SAC |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ SAC 125 | SAC |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | SAC 95 @ HOU 121 | HOU |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | SAC 113 @ HOU 103 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works