SAC
IND
Sacramento Kings @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Kings -16.6.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 7,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.5 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,940 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 29th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.8%).
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 27th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.2 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · IND n/a | SAC 29% · IND 71% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +240 · IND -240 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 121, Kings 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 10 and Pacers by 23.
Side by side
| SAC | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 2-3 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | IND 109 @ SAC 114 | SAC |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-26 | SAC 105 @ IND 116 | IND |
| 2025-03-31 | 2024-25 | SAC 109 @ IND 111 | IND |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024-25 | IND 122 @ SAC 95 | IND |
| 2024-02-02 | 2023-24 | SAC 133 @ IND 122 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works