SAC
MIA
Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Heat in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Simulation: the Heat win 7,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 28th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Heat -7.8, Kings -16.6.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,700 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 238.2 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · MIA n/a | SAC 27% · MIA 73% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +270 · MIA -270 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 123, Kings 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 9 and Heat by 24.
Side by side
| SAC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 1-4 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | 2025-26 | MIA 130 @ SAC 117 | MIA |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | SAC 127 @ MIA 111 | SAC |
| 2025-01-06 | 2024-25 | MIA 118 @ SAC 123 | SAC |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | SAC 111 @ MIA 110 | SAC |
| 2024-02-26 | 2023-24 | MIA 121 @ SAC 110 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works