SAC
MIL
Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MILMilwaukee Bucks
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bucks can win
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Simulation: the Bucks win 6,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Kings 30th (33.8%).
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Bucks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Bucks may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 3,900 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Bucks 30th (21.7%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Bucks 25th (15.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Bucks lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Bucks rank 30th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIL -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.6 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · MIL n/a | SAC 39% · MIL 61% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +157 · MIL -157 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 119, Kings 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 13 and Bucks by 20.
Side by side
| SAC | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 1-4 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025-26 | MIL 115 @ SAC 98 | MIL |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | SAC 135 @ MIL 133 | SAC |
| 2025-03-22 | 2024-25 | MIL 114 @ SAC 108 | MIL |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | SAC 115 @ MIL 130 | MIL |
| 2024-03-12 | 2023-24 | MIL 94 @ SAC 129 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works