SAC
MIN
Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
86% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.3 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 8,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Kings -16.6.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Kings 29th (-10.1).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,430 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 3 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -14 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.2 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · MIN n/a | SAC 14% · MIN 86% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +601 · MIN -601 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 124, Kings 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 3 and Timberwolves by 31.
Side by side
| SAC | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-2 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | SAC 103 @ MIN 117 | MIN |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | MIN 112 @ SAC 117 | SAC |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | SAC 110 @ MIN 124 | MIN |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | MIN 144 @ SAC 117 | MIN |
| 2025-02-03 | 2024-25 | SAC 116 @ MIN 114 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works