SAC

Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NOP

Our pick

NOPNew Orleans Pelicans

71% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

SAC 29%NOP 71%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Pelicans can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Kings -16.6.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
Simulation: the Pelicans win 7,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pelicans 21st (-4.2), Kings 29th (-10.1).

Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not

Upset odds: the Kings win 2,900 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 10 or more.
Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 27th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.7%).
Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 26th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.8%).
Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 26th of 30 in points allowed per game (120.1).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NOP -7.1
Total points	n/a	237.7
Win chance	SAC n/a · NOP n/a	SAC 29% · NOP 71%
Fair moneyline		SAC +245 · NOP -245

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Pelicans 123, Kings 116.
80% of simulations land between Kings by 10 and Pelicans by 23.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

SAC		NOP
0-5	Record	1-4
-10.1 29	Net rating	-4.2 21
108.3 28	Offensive rating	111.2 18
118.5 28	Defensive rating	115.4 23
52.4% 29	Effective FG%	52.8% 26
57.3% 29	Opponent eFG%	55.5% 23
14.1 14	Turnovers per 100	13.8 10
25.8% 14	Offensive rebound %	26.7% 9
33.8% 30	3-point %	34.4% 25
102.4 16	Pace	104.1 8

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-29	2026-27	SAC 120 @ NOP 132	NOP
2026-04-03	2025-26	NOP 113 @ SAC 117	SAC
2026-03-05	2025-26	NOP 133 @ SAC 123	NOP
2026-02-09	2025-26	SAC 94 @ NOP 120	NOP
2025-02-13	2024-25	SAC 133 @ NOP 140	NOP

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

SAC

Domantas Sabonis F

16.1 pts, 12.4 reb, 4.8 ast in 31.2 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

SAC

Zach LaVine G

20 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast in 32 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

SAC

Darius Acuff Jr. G

24 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast in 36.4 min, 38% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

NOP

Zion Williamson F

21.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.1 ast in 29.9 min, 60% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

NOP

Trey Murphy III F

21 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.7 ast in 35.3 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

NOP

Dejounte Murray G

16.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.3 ast in 28.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Pelicans beat the Kings 132-120 at home (2026-10-29). The difference: they shot 65% effective field goal percentage to 59% and they committed 5 fewer turnovers (20 to 25).