SAC

Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NYK

Our pick

NYKNew York Knicks

85% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 85% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

AZMango model

SAC 15%NYK 85%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Knicks can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.8 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Kings 29th (-10.1).
The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Simulation: the Knicks win 8,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Knicks +0.2, Kings -16.6.

Disadvantages Why Knicks may not

Upset odds: the Kings win 1,460 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 3 or more.
Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NYK -13.6
Total points	n/a	227.1
Win chance	SAC n/a · NYK n/a	SAC 15% · NYK 85%
Fair moneyline		SAC +586 · NYK -586

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Knicks 120, Kings 107.
80% of simulations land between Kings by 3 and Knicks by 30.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

SAC		NYK
0-5	Record	2-3
-10.1 29	Net rating	+7.6 3
108.3 28	Offensive rating	116.4 3
118.5 28	Defensive rating	108.7 4
52.4% 29	Effective FG%	55.6% 5
57.3% 29	Opponent eFG%	53.3% 7
14.1 14	Turnovers per 100	13.7 9
25.8% 14	Offensive rebound %	29.3% 5
33.8% 30	3-point %	37.5% 3
102.4 16	Pace	99.8 28

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-01-27	2025-26	SAC 87 @ NYK 103	NYK
2026-01-14	2025-26	NYK 101 @ SAC 112	SAC
2025-03-10	2024-25	NYK 133 @ SAC 104	NYK
2025-01-25	2024-25	SAC 120 @ NYK 143	NYK
2024-04-04	2023-24	SAC 109 @ NYK 120	NYK

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

SAC

Domantas Sabonis F

16.1 pts, 12.4 reb, 4.8 ast in 31.2 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

SAC

Zach LaVine G

20 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast in 32 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

SAC

Darius Acuff Jr. G

24 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast in 36.4 min, 38% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

NYK

Jalen Brunson G

26.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.6 ast in 35.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

NYK

Karl-Anthony Towns C

19.3 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.4 ast in 30.8 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

NYK

OG Anunoby F

17.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.6 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Knicks beat the Kings 103-87 at home (2026-01-27). The difference: they shot 56% effective field goal percentage to 43% and they made 13 threes to 5, a 24-point swing. Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 28 points.