SAC
OKC
Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
86% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.4 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 8,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Thunder +3.6, Kings -16.6.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,360 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -14.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · OKC n/a | SAC 14% · OKC 86% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +636 · OKC -636 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 121, Kings 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 3 and Thunder by 31.
Side by side
| SAC | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 4-1 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | SAC 99 @ OKC 113 | OKC |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | OKC 132 @ SAC 101 | OKC |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-26 | SAC 101 @ OKC 107 | OKC |
| 2025-03-25 | 2024-25 | OKC 121 @ SAC 105 | OKC |
| 2025-02-01 | 2024-25 | SAC 110 @ OKC 144 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works