SAC
ORL
Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Magic in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Magic win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.9 points to the Magic in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 28th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.4%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 23rd of 30 in points per game (113.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.2 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · ORL n/a | SAC 28% · ORL 72% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +253 · ORL -253 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 120, Kings 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 9 and Magic by 24.
Side by side
| SAC | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 1-3 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | 2025-26 | SAC 117 @ ORL 121 | ORL |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | ORL 131 @ SAC 94 | ORL |
| 2025-03-29 | 2024-25 | SAC 91 @ ORL 121 | ORL |
| 2025-02-05 | 2024-25 | ORL 130 @ SAC 111 | ORL |
| 2024-03-23 | 2023-24 | SAC 109 @ ORL 107 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works