SAC
PHI
Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.8 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 7,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.5 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,210 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 26th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.3%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 23rd of 30 in three-point shooting (34.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -10.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 231 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · PHI n/a | SAC 22% · PHI 78% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +352 · PHI -352 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 121, Kings 110.5.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 7 and 76ers by 27.
Side by side
| SAC | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 4-1 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | PHI 139 @ SAC 118 | PHI |
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | SAC 111 @ PHI 113 | PHI |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | SAC 104 @ PHI 117 | PHI |
| 2025-01-01 | 2024-25 | PHI 107 @ SAC 113 | SAC |
| 2024-03-25 | 2023-24 | PHI 96 @ SAC 108 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works