SAC
POR
Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.1 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 7,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.1 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5), Kings 29th (-10.1).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,050 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 28th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.1%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -10.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.6 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · POR n/a | SAC 20% · POR 80% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +388 · POR -388 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 122, Kings 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 6 and Trail Blazers by 27.
Side by side
| SAC | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-1 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | POR 128 @ SAC 120 | POR |
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | SAC 110 @ POR 122 | POR |
| 2026-01-18 | 2025-26 | POR 117 @ SAC 110 | POR |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | POR 98 @ SAC 93 | POR |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | SAC 133 @ POR 134 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works