SAC

Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

SAS

Our pick

SASSan Antonio Spurs

88% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

AZMango model

SAC 12%SAS 88%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Spurs can win

Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Kings 29th (-10.1).
Recent scoring margins: worth about 9.3 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Simulation: the Spurs win 8,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.6 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Kings -16.6.

Disadvantages Why Spurs may not

Upset odds: the Kings win 1,200 of 10,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 2 or more.
Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	SAS -15.6
Total points	n/a	231.3
Win chance	SAC n/a · SAS n/a	SAC 12% · SAS 88%
Fair moneyline		SAC +733 · SAS -733

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Spurs 123, Kings 108.
80% of simulations land between Kings by 2 and Spurs by 32.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

SAC		SAS
0-5	Record	3-2
-10.1 29	Net rating	+7.7 2
108.3 28	Offensive rating	115.2 5
118.5 28	Defensive rating	107.5 3
52.4% 29	Effective FG%	55.1% 8
57.3% 29	Opponent eFG%	51.4% 2
14.1 14	Turnovers per 100	13.3 6
25.8% 14	Offensive rebound %	26.4% 10
33.8% 30	3-point %	35.8% 14
102.4 16	Pace	102.5 15

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-27	2026-27	SAC 103 @ SAS 130	SAS
2026-03-17	2025-26	SAS 132 @ SAC 104	SAS
2026-02-21	2025-26	SAC 122 @ SAS 139	SAS
2025-11-16	2025-26	SAC 110 @ SAS 123	SAS
2025-03-07	2024-25	SAS 109 @ SAC 127	SAC

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

SAC

Domantas Sabonis F

16.1 pts, 12.4 reb, 4.8 ast in 31.2 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

SAC

Zach LaVine G

20 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast in 32 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

SAC

Darius Acuff Jr. G

24 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast in 36.4 min, 38% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

SAS

Victor Wembanyama F

24.6 pts, 11.3 reb, 3 ast in 30.5 min, 50% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

SAS

De'Aaron Fox G

17.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 31.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

SAS

Stephon Castle G

17 pts, 5.3 reb, 7 ast in 30.8 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Spurs beat the Kings 130-103 at home (2026-10-27). The difference: they shot 64% effective field goal percentage to 50% and they made 17 threes to 13, a 12-point swing. Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs with 29 points.