SAC
TOR
Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
85% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.2 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 8,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Kings -16.6.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,520 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in points per game (114.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -13 |
| Total points | n/a | 230 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · TOR n/a | SAC 15% · TOR 85% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +559 · TOR -559 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 121, Kings 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 4 and Raptors by 29.
Side by side
| SAC | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-1 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | SAC 123 @ TOR 115 | SAC |
| 2026-01-21 | 2025-26 | TOR 122 @ SAC 109 | TOR |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | TOR 107 @ SAC 122 | SAC |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024-25 | SAC 128 @ TOR 131 | TOR |
| 2024-03-20 | 2023-24 | SAC 123 @ TOR 89 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works