SAC
UTA
Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
UTAUtah Jazz
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Jazz can win
- Simulation: the Jazz win 6,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Jazz -7.8, Kings -16.6.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Jazz in our ratings.
- The Jazz' shooting (53.6% eFG%, 20th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Disadvantages Why Jazz may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 3,550 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Jazz lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 30th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (57.6%).
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 30th of 30 in points allowed per game (125.7).
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 29th of 30 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (119.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UTA -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.9 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · UTA n/a | SAC 36% · UTA 64% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +182 · UTA -182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 121, Kings 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 12 and Jazz by 21.
Side by side
| SAC | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 1-4 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | UTA 111 @ SAC 116 | SAC |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | SAC 93 @ UTA 121 | UTA |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | SAC 119 @ UTA 128 | UTA |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | UTA 104 @ SAC 105 | SAC |
| 2025-02-26 | 2024-25 | SAC 118 @ UTA 101 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works