SAC
WAS
Sacramento Kings @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Wizards
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Wizards can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Wizards win 6,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Wizards in our ratings.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Wizards' shooting (53.5% eFG%, 21st in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Disadvantages Why Wizards may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 3,560 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Wizards lose by 12 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Wizards 23rd (15.0).
- Weak spot: the Wizards rank 30th of 30 in net rating (points per 100 possessions) (-10.9).
- Weak spot: the Wizards rank 30th of 30 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (119.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.9 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · WAS n/a | SAC 36% · WAS 64% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +181 · WAS -181 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 120, Kings 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 12 and Wizards by 21.
Side by side
| SAC | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 2-3 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | SAC 112 @ WAS 116 | WAS |
| 2026-01-16 | 2025-26 | WAS 115 @ SAC 128 | SAC |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | SAC 111 @ WAS 116 | WAS |
| 2025-01-19 | 2024-25 | WAS 100 @ SAC 123 | SAC |
| 2024-03-21 | 2023-24 | SAC 102 @ WAS 109 | WAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works