SAS
BKN
San Antonio Spurs @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.9 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Nets -9.8.
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,210 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -10.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.4 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · BKN n/a | SAS 78% · BKN 22% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -352 · BKN +352 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 110, Spurs 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 27 and Nets by 7.
Side by side
| SAS | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | SAS 126 @ BKN 110 | SAS |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | BKN 107 @ SAS 118 | SAS |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | BKN 113 @ SAS 127 | SAS |
| 2024-12-27 | 2024-25 | SAS 96 @ BKN 87 | SAS |
| 2024-03-17 | 2023-24 | BKN 115 @ SAS 122 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works