SAS
DAL
San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Spurs 2nd (+7.9), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 3,680 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.8 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · DAL n/a | SAS 63% · DAL 37% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -172 · DAL +172 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 113, Spurs 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 21 and Mavericks by 12.
Side by side
| SAS | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 2026-27 | SAS 122 @ DAL 106 | SAS |
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | DAL 120 @ SAS 139 | SAS |
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | DAL 125 @ SAS 138 | SAS |
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | SAS 135 @ DAL 123 | SAS |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | SAS 125 @ DAL 92 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works