SAS
DET
San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Strength: the Pistons rank 1st of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (51.4%).
- Strength: the Pistons rank 2nd of 30 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (106.2).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Spurs win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Spurs 6th (13.3), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 16 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Spurs 2nd (76.6%), Pistons 15th (74.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.4 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · DET n/a | SAS 48% · DET 52% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS +109 · DET -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 112, Spurs 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 16 and Pistons by 17.
Side by side
| SAS | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | DET 106 @ SAS 121 | SAS |
| 2026-02-23 | 2025-26 | SAS 114 @ DET 103 | SAS |
| 2025-03-25 | 2024-25 | SAS 96 @ DET 122 | DET |
| 2025-02-21 | 2024-25 | DET 125 @ SAS 110 | DET |
| 2024-04-14 | 2023-24 | DET 95 @ SAS 123 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works