SAS
HOU
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Spurs +6.6.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 5,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Rockets 1st (34.3%), Spurs 10th (26.4%).
- Strength: the Rockets rank 1st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (34.3%).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Spurs win 4,260 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Spurs 6th (13.3), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Spurs 2nd (76.6%), Rockets 10th (74.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.8 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · HOU n/a | SAS 43% · HOU 57% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS +135 · HOU -135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 114, Spurs 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 15 and Rockets by 19.
Side by side
| SAS | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | HOU 114 @ SAS 110 | HOU |
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | HOU 120 @ SAS 145 | SAS |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | SAS 111 @ HOU 99 | SAS |
| 2026-01-20 | 2025-26 | SAS 106 @ HOU 111 | HOU |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | HOU 110 @ SAS 121 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works