SAS
LAC
San Antonio Spurs @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.8 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Clippers -1.5.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 3,810 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Spurs cross 2 time zones.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Clippers 14th (14.5), Spurs 25th (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.5 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · LAC n/a | SAS 62% · LAC 38% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -163 · LAC +163 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 111, Spurs 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 21 and Clippers by 13.
Side by side
| SAS | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | 2025-26 | SAS 118 @ LAC 99 | SAS |
| 2026-03-16 | 2025-26 | SAS 119 @ LAC 115 | SAS |
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | LAC 112 @ SAS 116 | SAS |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | SAS 117 @ LAC 122 | LAC |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | LAC 128 @ SAS 116 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works