SAS
LAL
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 5,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Spurs 6th (13.3), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Lakers win 4,830 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Lakers 11th (14.7), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Spurs cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.5 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · LAL n/a | SAS 52% · LAL 48% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -107 · LAL +107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 114, Spurs 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 17 and Lakers by 16.
Side by side
| SAS | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | 2025-26 | SAS 136 @ LAL 108 | SAS |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | LAL 91 @ SAS 107 | SAS |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-26 | SAS 132 @ LAL 119 | SAS |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | SAS 116 @ LAL 118 | LAL |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | SAS 109 @ LAL 125 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works