SAS
MEM
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Point differential per game: Spurs 2nd (+7.9), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,040 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.6 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · MEM n/a | SAS 60% · MEM 40% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -148 · MEM +148 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 113, Spurs 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 20 and Grizzlies by 14.
Side by side
| SAS | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | SAS 123 @ MEM 98 | SAS |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | SAS 105 @ MEM 106 | MEM |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | MEM 119 @ SAS 126 | SAS |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-26 | MEM 101 @ SAS 111 | SAS |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | SAS 130 @ MEM 128 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works