SAS
MIA
San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.3 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Heat -7.8.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.5 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Heat 12th (+1.6).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Heat win 3,320 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 11 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Heat 17th (14.2), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.1 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · MIA n/a | SAS 67% · MIA 33% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -201 · MIA +201 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 114, Spurs 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 22 and Heat by 11.
Side by side
| SAS | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | SAS 136 @ MIA 111 | SAS |
| 2025-10-30 | 2025-26 | MIA 101 @ SAS 107 | SAS |
| 2025-02-01 | 2024-25 | MIA 105 @ SAS 103 | MIA |
| 2025-01-19 | 2024-25 | SAS 107 @ MIA 128 | MIA |
| 2024-02-07 | 2023-24 | SAS 104 @ MIA 116 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works