SAS
MIL
San Antonio Spurs @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.9 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 7,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,190 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -10.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.5 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · MIL n/a | SAS 78% · MIL 22% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -356 · MIL +356 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 110, Spurs 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 27 and Bucks by 7.
Side by side
| SAS | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | 2025-26 | SAS 127 @ MIL 95 | SAS |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | MIL 101 @ SAS 119 | SAS |
| 2025-01-31 | 2024-25 | MIL 118 @ SAS 144 | SAS |
| 2025-01-08 | 2024-25 | SAS 105 @ MIL 121 | MIL |
| 2024-01-04 | 2023-24 | MIL 125 @ SAS 121 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works