SAS
MIN
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Spurs +6.6.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Spurs 25th (13.0).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Spurs win 4,970 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
- Point differential per game: Spurs 2nd (+7.9), Timberwolves 11th (+2.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Spurs 6th (13.3), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.1 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · MIN n/a | SAS 50% · MIN 50% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS +101 · MIN -101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 115, Spurs 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 16 and Timberwolves by 17.
Side by side
| SAS | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Playoffs | SAS 139 @ MIN 109 | SAS |
| 2026-05-12 | Playoffs | MIN 97 @ SAS 126 | SAS |
| 2026-05-10 | Playoffs | SAS 109 @ MIN 114 | MIN |
| 2026-05-08 | Playoffs | SAS 115 @ MIN 108 | SAS |
| 2026-05-06 | Playoffs | MIN 95 @ SAS 133 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works