SAS
NOP
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,040 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pelicans 18th (14.1), Spurs 25th (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.6 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · NOP n/a | SAS 70% · NOP 30% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -229 · NOP +229 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 114, Spurs 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 23 and Pelicans by 10.
Side by side
| SAS | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | NOP 104 @ SAS 95 | NOP |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-26 | SAS 135 @ NOP 132 | SAS |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | NOP 119 @ SAS 126 | SAS |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | SAS 120 @ NOP 116 | SAS |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | NOP 115 @ SAS 119 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works