SAS
NYK
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Knicks +0.2.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 5,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Spurs 9th (0.22), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.7 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Knicks win 4,960 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Knicks 3rd (37.5%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 17 or more.
- History: the Knicks won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 223 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · NYK n/a | SAS 50% · NYK 50% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -101 · NYK +101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 112, Spurs 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 17 and Knicks by 17.
Side by side
| SAS | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Playoffs | NYK 94 @ SAS 90 | NYK |
| 2026-06-10 | Playoffs | SAS 106 @ NYK 107 | NYK |
| 2026-06-08 | Playoffs | SAS 115 @ NYK 111 | SAS |
| 2026-06-05 | Playoffs | NYK 105 @ SAS 104 | NYK |
| 2026-06-03 | Playoffs | NYK 105 @ SAS 95 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works