SAS

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

OKC

Our pick

OKCOklahoma City Thunder

52% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

SAS 48%OKC 52%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Thunder can win

Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Spurs 25th (13.0).
Simulation: the Thunder win 5,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
Strength: the Thunder rank 1st of 30 in net rating (points per 100 possessions) (+10.0).
Strength: the Thunder rank 1st of 30 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (105.5).

Disadvantages Why Thunder may not

Upset odds: the Spurs win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Spurs 10th (26.4%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Spurs 2nd (76.6%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 16 or more.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the Spurs in our ratings.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	OKC -0.5
Total points	n/a	224
Win chance	SAS n/a · OKC n/a	SAS 48% · OKC 52%
Fair moneyline		SAS +109 · OKC -109

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Thunder 112, Spurs 112.
80% of simulations land between Spurs by 16 and Thunder by 17.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

SAS		OKC
3-2	Record	4-1
+7.7 2	Net rating	+10.0 1
115.2 5	Offensive rating	115.4 4
107.5 3	Defensive rating	105.5 1
55.1% 8	Effective FG%	55.6% 6
51.4% 2	Opponent eFG%	51.8% 3
13.3 6	Turnovers per 100	12.5 1
26.4% 10	Offensive rebound %	23.4% 27
35.8% 14	3-point %	36.2% 10
102.5 15	Pace	102.2 18

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-20	2026-27	OKC 116 @ SAS 104	OKC
2026-05-30	Playoffs	SAS 111 @ OKC 103	SAS
2026-05-28	Playoffs	OKC 91 @ SAS 118	SAS
2026-05-26	Playoffs	SAS 114 @ OKC 127	OKC
2026-05-24	Playoffs	OKC 82 @ SAS 103	SAS

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

SAS

Victor Wembanyama F

24.6 pts, 11.3 reb, 3 ast in 30.5 min, 50% FG

vs a defense ranked 1 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.8%)

SAS

De'Aaron Fox G

17.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 31.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 1 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.8%)

SAS

Stephon Castle G

17 pts, 5.3 reb, 7 ast in 30.8 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 1 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.8%)

OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G

30.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.6 ast in 33.7 min, 53% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

OKC

Chet Holmgren C

16.6 pts, 8.8 reb, 1.6 ast in 29.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

OKC

Jalen Williams G

16.5 pts, 4.5 reb, 5 ast in 27.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Thunder beat the Spurs 116-104 on the road (2026-10-20). The difference: they shot 53% effective field goal percentage to 44% and they made 14 threes to 10, a 12-point swing. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 32 points.