SAS
ORL
San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.6 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Magic -12.5.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Magic 17th (-0.2).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.7 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,140 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 10 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Magic 13th (14.5), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · ORL n/a | SAS 69% · ORL 31% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -218 · ORL +218 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 111, Spurs 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 23 and Magic by 10.
Side by side
| SAS | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | ORL 103 @ SAS 112 | SAS |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | SAS 114 @ ORL 112 | SAS |
| 2025-04-01 | 2024-25 | ORL 116 @ SAS 105 | ORL |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | SAS 111 @ ORL 112 | ORL |
| 2024-02-08 | 2023-24 | SAS 111 @ ORL 127 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works