SAS
PHX
San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Suns -14.3.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.7 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,260 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -6 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.7 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · PHX n/a | SAS 67% · PHX 33% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -207 · PHX +207 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 110, Spurs 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 23 and Suns by 11.
Side by side
| SAS | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-2 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | PHX 100 @ SAS 101 | SAS |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | PHX 94 @ SAS 121 | SAS |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | SAS 102 @ PHX 111 | PHX |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-26 | SAS 118 @ PHX 130 | PHX |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | SAS 98 @ PHX 117 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works