SAS
POR
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 5,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Spurs 6th (13.3), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Point differential per game: Spurs 2nd (+7.9), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 4,030 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 14 or more.
- Body clock: the Spurs cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.5 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · POR n/a | SAS 60% · POR 40% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -148 · POR +148 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 113, Spurs 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 20 and Trail Blazers by 14.
Side by side
| SAS | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Playoffs | POR 95 @ SAS 114 | SAS |
| 2026-04-26 | Playoffs | SAS 114 @ POR 93 | SAS |
| 2026-04-24 | Playoffs | SAS 120 @ POR 108 | SAS |
| 2026-04-21 | Playoffs | POR 106 @ SAS 103 | POR |
| 2026-04-19 | Playoffs | POR 98 @ SAS 111 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works