SAS
SAC
San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
83% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 9.3 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.6 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 8,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,700 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 5 or more.
- Body clock: the Spurs cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -12.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.3 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · SAC n/a | SAS 83% · SAC 17% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -488 · SAC +488 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 109, Spurs 122.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 29 and Kings by 5.
Side by side
| SAS | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-5 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-27 | SAC 103 @ SAS 130 | SAS |
| 2026-03-17 | 2025-26 | SAS 132 @ SAC 104 | SAS |
| 2026-02-21 | 2025-26 | SAC 122 @ SAS 139 | SAS |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | SAC 110 @ SAS 123 | SAS |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | SAS 109 @ SAC 127 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works