SAS
TOR
San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 5,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Raptors 9th (+3.0).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Spurs 2nd (76.6%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Point differential per game: Spurs 2nd (+7.9), Raptors 9th (+3.0).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,710 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Spurs +6.6.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.8 |
| Win chance | SAS n/a · TOR n/a | SAS 53% · TOR 47% |
| Fair moneyline | SAS -112 · TOR +112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 113, Spurs 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Spurs by 18 and Raptors by 16.
Side by side
| SAS | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +7.7 2 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 115.2 5 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 107.5 3 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 55.1% 8 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 51.4% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 13.3 6 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 26.4% 10 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 35.8% 14 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 102.5 15 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | SAS 110 @ TOR 107 | SAS |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | TOR 103 @ SAS 121 | SAS |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | TOR 118 @ SAS 125 | SAS |
| 2025-03-23 | 2024-25 | SAS 123 @ TOR 89 | SAS |
| 2024-02-12 | 2023-24 | SAS 122 @ TOR 99 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works