TOR
ATL
Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 5,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hawks 12th (74.2%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Strength: the Hawks rank 6th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (15.4).
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Hawks +4.2.
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,990 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 17 or more.
- History: the Raptors won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.1 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · ATL n/a | TOR 50% · ATL 50% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR +100 · ATL -100 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 115, Raptors 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 17 and Hawks by 17.
Side by side
| TOR | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-3 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | ATL 100 @ TOR 118 | TOR |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | ATL 117 @ TOR 134 | TOR |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | TOR 109 @ ATL 97 | TOR |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | TOR 138 @ ATL 118 | TOR |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | TOR 117 @ ATL 94 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works