TOR
BOS
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Celtics 8th (36.5%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Celtics 4th (75.9%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 7th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,340 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Celtics +8.0.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.3 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · BOS n/a | TOR 43% · BOS 57% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR +130 · BOS -130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 113, Raptors 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 15 and Celtics by 19.
Side by side
| TOR | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | TOR 101 @ BOS 115 | BOS |
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | TOR 117 @ BOS 125 | BOS |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | BOS 112 @ TOR 96 | BOS |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | BOS 121 @ TOR 113 | BOS |
| 2025-02-25 | 2024-25 | BOS 111 @ TOR 101 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works