TOR
CHA
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Hornets -7.2.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,430 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 220.2 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · CHA n/a | TOR 56% · CHA 44% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -126 · CHA +126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 110, Raptors 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 19 and Hornets by 15.
Side by side
| TOR | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | TOR 97 @ CHA 96 | TOR |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | CHA 111 @ TOR 86 | CHA |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | TOR 111 @ CHA 118 | CHA |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | CHA 108 @ TOR 110 | TOR |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | CHA 96 @ TOR 126 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works