TOR
CLE
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Cavaliers 15th (14.2).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 4,820 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 16 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Cavaliers 8th (27.0%), Raptors 15th (25.7%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Cavaliers 10th (0.21), Raptors 17th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.5 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · CLE n/a | TOR 52% · CLE 48% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -107 · CLE +107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 114, Raptors 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 17 and Cavaliers by 16.
Side by side
| TOR | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Playoffs | TOR 102 @ CLE 114 | CLE |
| 2026-05-01 | Playoffs | CLE 110 @ TOR 112 | TOR |
| 2026-04-29 | Playoffs | TOR 120 @ CLE 125 | CLE |
| 2026-04-26 | Playoffs | CLE 89 @ TOR 93 | TOR |
| 2026-04-23 | Playoffs | CLE 104 @ TOR 126 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works