TOR
DAL
Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Mavericks +2.0.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Raptors 9th (+3.0), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,570 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 15 or more.
- History: the Mavericks won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.5 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · DAL n/a | TOR 54% · DAL 46% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -119 · DAL +119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 114, Raptors 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 18 and Mavericks by 15.
Side by side
| TOR | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | DAL 92 @ TOR 122 | TOR |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | TOR 129 @ DAL 139 | DAL |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | TOR 102 @ DAL 124 | DAL |
| 2024-12-07 | 2024-25 | DAL 125 @ TOR 118 | DAL |
| 2024-02-28 | 2023-24 | DAL 136 @ TOR 125 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works