TOR
DEN
Toronto Raptors @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Nuggets -3.2.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- The Raptors' offense (112.4 points per 100 possessions, 15th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 8th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 7th.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.7 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · DEN n/a | TOR 52% · DEN 48% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -109 · DEN +109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 114, Raptors 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 18 and Nuggets by 16.
Side by side
| TOR | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 2025-26 | TOR 115 @ DEN 121 | DEN |
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | DEN 106 @ TOR 103 | DEN |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | TOR 119 @ DEN 121 | DEN |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024-25 | DEN 127 @ TOR 125 | DEN |
| 2024-03-11 | 2023-24 | TOR 119 @ DEN 125 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works