TOR
DET
Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pistons 3rd (30.8%), Raptors 15th (25.7%).
- History: the Pistons won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Pistons +6.4.
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,040 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.1 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · DET n/a | TOR 40% · DET 60% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR +147 · DET -147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 113, Raptors 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 14 and Pistons by 20.
Side by side
| TOR | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | TOR 116 @ DET 127 | DET |
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | DET 108 @ TOR 119 | TOR |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | DET 113 @ TOR 95 | DET |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | DET 117 @ TOR 105 | DET |
| 2025-01-11 | 2024-25 | TOR 114 @ DET 123 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works