TOR
GSW
Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Warriors -1.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Raptors' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 15th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,340 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Raptors cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.8 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · GSW n/a | TOR 57% · GSW 43% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -130 · GSW +130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 114, Raptors 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 19 and Warriors by 15.
Side by side
| TOR | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | 2025-26 | TOR 145 @ GSW 127 | TOR |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | GSW 127 @ TOR 141 | TOR |
| 2025-03-20 | 2024-25 | TOR 114 @ GSW 117 | GSW |
| 2025-01-13 | 2024-25 | GSW 101 @ TOR 104 | TOR |
| 2024-03-01 | 2023-24 | GSW 120 @ TOR 105 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works