TOR
HOU
Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Rockets 1st (34.3%), Raptors 15th (25.7%).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 3,520 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.5 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · HOU n/a | TOR 35% · HOU 65% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR +184 · HOU -184 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 115, Raptors 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 12 and Rockets by 22.
Side by side
| TOR | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | TOR 99 @ HOU 113 | HOU |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-26 | HOU 139 @ TOR 121 | HOU |
| 2025-02-09 | 2024-25 | TOR 87 @ HOU 94 | HOU |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024-25 | HOU 114 @ TOR 110 | HOU |
| 2024-02-09 | 2023-24 | HOU 104 @ TOR 107 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works