TOR
IND
Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Pacers +0.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 13 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.8 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · IND n/a | TOR 64% · IND 36% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -178 · IND +178 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 112, Raptors 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 21 and Pacers by 13.
Side by side
| TOR | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | 2025-26 | IND 104 @ TOR 122 | TOR |
| 2026-01-14 | 2025-26 | TOR 115 @ IND 101 | TOR |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | IND 95 @ TOR 97 | TOR |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-26 | TOR 129 @ IND 111 | TOR |
| 2025-02-26 | 2024-25 | TOR 91 @ IND 111 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works