TOR
LAC
Toronto Raptors @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Clippers -1.5.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,510 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Raptors cross 3 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.2 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · LAC n/a | TOR 55% · LAC 45% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -122 · LAC +122 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 111, Raptors 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 18 and Clippers by 15.
Side by side
| TOR | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | TOR 94 @ LAC 119 | LAC |
| 2026-01-16 | 2025-26 | LAC 121 @ TOR 117 | LAC |
| 2025-02-02 | 2024-25 | LAC 108 @ TOR 115 | TOR |
| 2024-11-09 | 2024-25 | TOR 103 @ LAC 105 | LAC |
| 2024-01-26 | 2023-24 | LAC 127 @ TOR 107 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works